Thoughts on the Democrat Debate

I watched the first hour of the live Democrat debate last night. Would have watched the second hour if not for Lost, but no worries in this day and age as you can catch the whole thing later any number of ways. If you did not watch the debate then fire up your inner Citizen and click this link which will take you to CNN and their video rebroadcast.

As far as my thoughts go, and looking at the debate from the perspective of a well informed average voter, I thought they both did well. (( I realize well informed average voter may strike many as a gross oxymoron.)) Each had their moments. Each made their points. Let’s call it a draw. Looking around at some of the pundits wrap-up opinions this appears to be the general consensus, more or less. Each did good to great. Nothing much changed.

However, after reading the various pundit conclusions I would differ with many of them on who a draw benefits. Quite a few pundits seem to think a draw favors Hillary. CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider represents this line of thinking. He writes,

To the extent that the debate was a draw, it helps Clinton. Why? Because holding his own wasn’t enough. Obama’s task was to make the case that there were huge differences between them.

The logic here goes Hillary is basically running as an incumbent. Obama is the challenger. A draws favor the incumbent. It’s the political equivalent to Newton’s First Law of Motion, namely an an object in motion tends to stay in motion unless acted upon by an unbalanced force. The unbalanced force being a challenger’s win. Perhaps. In this case, I think not. In this case, a draw favors Obama because of the context, because it was the first debate pitting the two against each other without the distraction of a third or fourth candidate.

In this sense, with Hillary as the only relational orbit from which to work, Obama proved himself, at the very least, her equal. By leveling the field with a draw Obama allowed the viewer-voter to make a decision solely on the merits without the gravity of Hillary’s perceived incumbency bending any conclusions.

Part of the issue here, in regards to the benefits of a draw, is the pundits are saturated in this stuff. Their perspective is from inside looking out. Looking at it from the outside in, looking at it from the perspective of a voter just beginning to pay attention, or one who doesn’t mark the hours by Daily Kos postings, then a draw looks like a completed contest between equals, and that’s what Obama wants I would imagine.

He wants voters to think of him as Clinton’s equal on matters of substance. If it’s a draw in that arena then he probably believes he can win on the force of his Change/Future/Inclusive/Optimistic message-style. In other words, if it’s a toss up as to who would be more competent at the job, then you’re apt to pick the one you like more, or pick on style. I think Obama would be considered more likable and stylish than Hillary.

Cartoon above created by John Deering of the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette

February 01 2008 09:38:21 AM EST